Seminario Violent Conflict and Cross-Border Lending.

Violent Conflict and Cross-Border Lending.

How do violent conflicts shape cross-border lending? Using data on syndicated loans by 14,021 creditors to firms in 179 countries (1989--2020), we document a dual effect: foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic banks but significantly increase financing to military and dual-use sectors during conflicts. This reallocation is stronger among lenders less specialized in the conflict country, more specialized in military lending, and domiciled in politically non-aligned nations. Effects are geographically contained and temporally limited, dissipating post-conflict. Our findings reveal how global banks strategically redirect credit toward military sectors during armed conflicts, despite reducing overall country exposure.

Mamonov Mikhail

Mikhail is Assistant Professor of Finance (tenure track) in the Department of Economics and Finance at Toulouse Business School (TBS, France). In October 2023, he earned his Ph.D. degree in Economics from CERGE-EI (a joint workplace of Charles University and the Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Republic) with a thesis on political distortions in banking. During 2021-2023, he was a visiting Ph.D. student at the Department of Banking and Finance at the University of Zurich (Switzerland), the Department of Accounting, Finance, and Insurance at KU Leuven (Belgium), and the Department of Economics at Princeton University (USA). His research explores how banks and their corporate borrowers adapt to various types of (geo)political distortions (violent conflicts, sanctions, board interventions, unfair prudential regulation, etc.).

Per informazioni: Giulia Baschieri (giulia.baschieri@unibo.it)